Reading · Summer 2026 Reading from MIT

Science & engineering

Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach

Chapter by Jennifer Morris, principal research scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy and the MIT Energy Initiative, and John Reilly, senior lecturer in the MIT Sloan School of Management

Springer Nature · 2025

Understanding future emissions scenarios is essential for preparing for climate change. The chapter "Emissions and Concentration Scenarios" examines how socioeconomic uncertainty contributes to overall climate change projections, and identifies key drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. It reviews the history of emissions scenarios and compares various approaches, including IPCC methods and formal uncertainty analysis techniques. The chapter concludes with lessons learned from over 40 years of socioeconomic scenario development for climate research.

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