Invisible Infrastructure

One Load-Bearing Company

The systemic risk is the graph. No single filing composes the graph, so no category system renders the risk. Each connection below is locally honest and globally blind.

×OpenAIOracleMicrosoftAmazonNVIDIAAMDBroadcomCoreWeaveAnthropicEllisonWBD mergerSoftBankSonKIOXIAToyotaSamsungSK HynixMicronRAM pricesDisneyAppleStargateMGXApollo/BXUS retailJP retail
Read by disclosure source

Each filing shows only its own slice. Choose one and watch the rest of the graph go dark.

Relationship ledger

All 30 relationships. Tap a name to isolate one company.

$300B, 5-year cloud contract
definitive / verified
OpenAI is roughly half of Oracle's $638B RPO per S&P. Most capacity unbuilt.
Audit claims 25, 27
named key credit risk
disclosed-in-filing / verified
The if that carries the rating: if OpenAI cannot pay, Oracle holds stranded leases.
Audit claim 25
~1.16B shares (~40%)
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Also ~$2.3B annual dividend.
Audit claim 30
346M shares pledged
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Pledged for personal indebtedness; block value swings with the stock.
Audit claim 30
$45.7B trust equity, $40.4B personal guarantee
definitive / verified
Guarantee ultimately backed by Oracle stock. Merger under TRO July 21.
Audit claim 31
~$24B Middle East funding
estimated / attributed
Attributed, not independently confirmed.
reporting cited by Zitron; not confirmed in a filing
Audit claim 31
$30B+, tranche-funded
definitive / verified
Third tranche due October 1 2026.
Audit claim 1
$46B Vision Fund gain, ~98% OpenAI
disclosed-in-filing / verified
NAV now moves with whatever OpenAI does each quarter.
Audit claim 33
founder / control
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Vision Fund 2 self-funded and concentrated.
SoftBank corporate disclosures
Audit claim 34
passed Toyota, June 2026
disclosed-in-filing / verified
SoftBank and KIOXIA both overtook Toyota atop Japan's market cap.
Audit claim 35
passed Toyota, June 2026
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Up ~640% in 2026 on the memory boom.
Audit claim 35
buying on margin
estimated / attributed
Concentration risk pushed onto Japanese households.
reporting cited by Zitron
Audit claim 40
$30B (from an up-to-$100B LOI that went on ice)
definitive / verified
Original Sept 22 2025 announcement was a letter of intent.
Audit claims 11, 12
6GW deal, warrants up to ~10%
definitive / verified-with-caveat
No verified GPU deliveries yet; MI450 always scheduled 2H 2026.
Audit claim 13
10GW custom silicon (Jalapeno)
definitive / verified
Chip is real; the nine-month claim is the companies' own language.
Audit claim 14
$100B+ cumulative spend
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Includes infrastructure and hosting, not just equity.
Audit claim 9
$50B ($35B contingent)
contingent / verified
$35B contingent on IPO or AGI; includes Trainium compute.
Audit claim 1
$2B + $6.3B capacity backstop
definitive / verified
Bloomberg framed it as circular financing.
Audit claim 36
$22.4B contract
definitive / verified
Neocloud demand traceable back to OpenAI.
CoreWeave disclosures, late 2025
Audit claim 8
$35B TPU SPV
definitive / verified-with-caveat
Apollo/Blackstone-led; Broadcom guarantees senior tranches.
Audit claim 37
deficiency guarantee, senior tranches
definitive / verified
Broadcom took a ratings knock for the guarantee.
Audit claim 37
900K wafers/month LOI
loi-only / verified
Never executed; stocks rallied and Samsung hiked prices ~60%.
Audit claim 17
memory supply LOI
loi-only / verified
2026 capacity sold out; 2027 called worst supply year.
Audit claim 17
~65% of HBM purchasing
estimated / attributed
When GPU capex slows, HBM demand goes with it.
analyst estimates cited by Zitron
Audit claim 24
HBM reallocation raises prices
alleged / verified-with-caveat
Antitrust suit alleges coordinated DDR3/DDR4 cuts; unproven.
Audit claims 19, 23
$1B, dissolved
dissolved / verified
Sora shut down; no money changed hands. Render as a severed edge.
Audit claim 15
trade-secret suit
alleged / verified
400+ poached hires cited; OpenAI denies.
Audit claim 38
OpenAI/Oracle/SoftBank/MGX JV
definitive / verified
Abilene partly live; Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico delayed.
Audit claim 45
$16.3B Michigan, ~$14B bond tranche
definitive / verified
PIMCO anchored ~$10B after US banks retreated; rests on Oracle credit.
Audit claim 45
~20% of US equity volume
disclosed-in-filing / verified
Strongest structural buyer; no net-sell day in July 2026.
Citadel Securities GMI note, July 2026
Audit claim 40
Inspect

Select any box to open its dossier: what it owes, what it is owed, and which document each connection lives in.

How to read an edge
Verified
Verified with caveat
Attributed to reporting
Definitive or filed
Contingent or alleged
Letter of intent, estimate
×
Dissolved deal
Color is confidence, dash is the deal's reality, and line weight grows with the dollars. The rust box at the center is the company everything else rests on.
Show the work

Every edge traces to a numbered verdict in the citation ledger, and most link out to the primary document (a filing, ruling, ratings action, or press release). Open the ledger, or read the article the graph was fact-checked against.

Verify these numbers

Each row recomputes a headline fact from the data in your browser. If a number on this page is wrong, a row goes red.

Entities (nodes)26
Relationships (edges)30
Distinct disclosure sources30
Box overlaps in the layout0
Edges linked to an audit claim30 / 30
Edges with a primary source link24 / 30

All checks pass. The numbers on this page re-derive from the download.

Download the data

The whole graph as open data (v0.2.0, CC-BY-4.0). Hashed and citable.

Lawrence, J. (2026). One Load-Bearing Company: OpenAI counterparty concentration, as open data (v0.2.0). jakelawrence.xyz/research/one-load-bearing-company.

Twenty-six entities, thirty relationships, thirty distinct disclosure sources. Each edge links to its verdict in a claim-by-claim audit. As of July 22 2026.

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