{ "meta": { "title": "How Would I Know?", "short": "ICE Claims", "series": "Field Data", "kind": "Methodology Inventory", "subject": "What can and cannot be known about U.S. immigration enforcement from public data", "scope": "National, 2003 (ICE founding) through the run date. General-public audience.", "runDate": "2026-07-24", "updated": "2026-07-24", "nextReview": "2026-10", "cadence": "Quarterly, or immediately when ICE resumes the semimonthly detention report or publishes an FY2025 annual report.", "refreshLog": [ { "date": "2026-07-24", "summary": "v2, same day: a plain-language line on every claim, a jargon decoder, and a readability and navigation pass on the page. The figures did not change. Also the sweep that closed out the corpus's remaining single-document pulls; what resolved is folded in below and what did not stays honestly open." }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "summary": "Initial publication from the corpus run of the same date, with the resolution addendum's eight-item corrections ledger applied (DDP coverage through 2026-03-10, the Jan 22 2025 detention baseline, TRAC's hedged judge-variation language, the Mullin withheld-mandate caveat, and the rest)." } ] }, "tiers": { "T1": { "id": "T1", "label": "Custodial records", "note": "Primary documents: statutes, Federal Register notices, court dockets, SEC filings, procurement ledgers, the official record of rhetoric." }, "T2": { "id": "T2", "label": "Official aggregates", "note": "Agency-published statistics: ICE/OHSS/EOIR tables, GAO and OIG reports, pollster trend files." }, "T3": { "id": "T3", "label": "Independent replication", "note": "Third parties re-deriving figures from custodial microdata: TRAC, the Deportation Data Project, Vera, peer-reviewed studies, demographic modelers." }, "T4": { "id": "T4", "label": "Advocacy analysis", "note": "Interest-group analysis on any side: Cato, CIS, AILA, Detention Watch Network, the American Immigration Council, CAP. Used with the direction labeled." }, "T5": { "id": "T5", "label": "Journalism / commentary", "note": "Reporting and fact-check archives. Treated as a claim index and a currency check, not as authority." } }, "sources": { "ice_fy2024": { "id": "ice_fy2024", "tier": "T2", "title": "ICE FY2024 Annual Report and ERO statistics", "publisher": "U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement", "url": "https://www.ice.gov/statistics", "published": "2024-12", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "FY2024 report live; no FY2025 annual report located as of the run date. Dashboard stopped comprehensive updates January 2025." }, "ice_detmgmt": { "id": "ice_detmgmt", "tier": "T2", "title": "ICE semimonthly Detention Management report (congressionally mandated)", "publisher": "U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement", "url": "https://www.ice.gov/detain/detention-management", "published": "2026-04-09", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "FROZEN: not updated since April 9, 2026. At least three lawsuits pending. Every facility-level ADP figure downstream of it is stale by construction." }, "ice_287g": { "id": "ice_287g", "tier": "T2", "title": "287(g) participating-agency list (signed Memoranda of Agreement)", "publisher": "U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement", "url": "https://www.ice.gov/identify-and-arrest/287g", "published": "2026-07-20", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Live and timestamped by ICE to the minute. Counts signed MOAs, not distinct agencies; one agency can sign multiple models." }, "ice_atd": { "id": "ice_atd", "tier": "T2", "title": "Alternatives to Detention feature page (ATD-ISAP daily-cost figures)", "publisher": "U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement", "url": "https://www.ice.gov/features/atd", "published": "2024", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Marked ARCHIVED by ICE (observed May 2026). Treat its figures as dated agency statistics; the FY2025/FY2026 congressional budget justifications are the current cite." }, "ohss": { "id": "ohss", "tier": "T2", "title": "DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics: Yearbook and monthly enforcement tables", "publisher": "U.S. Department of Homeland Security", "url": "https://ohss.dhs.gov/", "published": "2026", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "2024 Yearbook page live, some tables 'coming soon'. Start-month discrepancy resolved: the first monthly tables report covers data through September 2023, published January 2024; November 2023 was the OHSS office's launch month. Verified indirectly (agency pages block fetches; consistent press-release text)." }, "ddp": { "id": "ddp", "tier": "T3", "title": "Deportation Data Project (litigation-driven FOIA releases of ICE microdata)", "publisher": "UC Berkeley Law / UCLA (Hausman, Blair, Qureshi)", "url": "https://deportationdata.org/", "published": "2026-04-07", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Current release covers through March 10, 2026 (posted around April 7, 2026). Each update generally requires a new lawsuit. The ACLU-era historical window (Oct 2011 through Sept 2023) is verified in the project's own data preprint, which overlaps the new FOIA data by one month for validation." }, "trac_quickfacts": { "id": "trac_quickfacts", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Immigration Detention Quick Facts", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/immigration/quickfacts/", "published": "2026-07-11", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Migrated off the Syracuse domain to tracreports.org (reported February 2025). Detention snapshots begin May 4, 2019." }, "trac_767": { "id": "trac_767", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Report #767, 'Taking Stock' (FY2025 removals)", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/reports/767/", "published": "2026", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "trac_732": { "id": "trac_732", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Report #732 (judge-by-judge asylum decisions, FY2019-2024)", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/reports/732/", "published": "2024-11-25", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "trac_752": { "id": "trac_752", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Report #752, 'Asylum Success Still Varies Widely Among Immigration Judges' (Nov 25, 2024; the NY court's 3.2%-92.6% judge range appears here verbatim, plus the methodology cautions)", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/reports/752/", "published": "2025", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "trac_766": { "id": "trac_766", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Report #766, 'Immigration Court Asylum Grant Rates Cut in Half' (Nov 18, 2025; states verbatim: 19.2% granted in August 2025 vs 38.2% in August 2024)", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/reports/766/", "published": "2025-11-18", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "trac_eoir": { "id": "trac_eoir", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC Immigration Court Quick Facts (backlog series)", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/immigration/quickfacts/eoir.html", "published": "2026-06", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "eoir_stats": { "id": "eoir_stats", "tier": "T2", "title": "EOIR adjudication statistics (FY2025 representation rates, data generated Nov 18, 2025)", "publisher": "U.S. Department of Justice, Executive Office for Immigration Review", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/eoir/media/1344931/dl", "published": "2025-11-18", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "EOIR released no September 2025 dataset during the federal shutdown; the October 2025 dataset fills the gap." }, "fr_2025_er": { "id": "fr_2025_er", "tier": "T1", "title": "Designating Aliens for Expedited Removal, 90 FR 8139 (Doc. 2025-01720)", "publisher": "Federal Register", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/24/2025-01720/designating-aliens-for-expedited-removal", "published": "2025-01-24", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "DATES section states verbatim: effective 6:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday January 21, 2025." }, "courts_mtr": { "id": "courts_mtr", "tier": "T1", "title": "Make the Road New York v. Huffman / v. Mullin dockets (D.D.C. 1:25-cv-00190; D.C. Cir. No. 25-5320)", "publisher": "Federal courts via CourtListener / Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse", "url": "https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69566723/make-the-road-new-york-v-huffman/", "published": "2026-06-23", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "District stay Aug 29, 2025 (Judge Cobb, ECF 64, 2025 WL 2494908, also reported at 805 F. Supp. 3d 139; the WL cite is confirmed verbatim in the D.C. Circuit opinion). D.C. Circuit vacatur June 23, 2026, MANDATE WITHHELD pending the rehearing window as of the run date." }, "obbba": { "id": "obbba", "tier": "T1", "title": "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1, 119th Congress, signed July 2025): $45B detention appropriation through FY2029", "publisher": "U.S. Congress", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1", "published": "2025-07", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "gao_25_107580": { "id": "gao_25_107580", "tier": "T2", "title": "GAO-25-107580: DHS detention-facility inspections (four entities; 'nearly all facilities received passing ratings' FY2022-2024)", "publisher": "U.S. Government Accountability Office", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107580", "published": "2025-05-21", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "gao_18_343": { "id": "gao_18_343", "tier": "T2", "title": "GAO-18-343: Immigration Detention: Opportunities Exist to Improve Cost Estimates", "publisher": "U.S. Government Accountability Office", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-343", "published": "2018-04-18", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "oig_21_46": { "id": "oig_21_46", "tier": "T2", "title": "DHS OIG-21-46: Violations of ICE Detention Standards at Adams County Correctional Center (Natchez, MS)", "publisher": "DHS Office of Inspector General", "url": "https://www.oig.dhs.gov/", "published": "2021-07-14", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "A 2021 inspection, not a recent one. OIG lost appropriations for roughly 60% of FY2026; at least seven ICE probes paused." }, "geo_fy2025": { "id": "geo_fy2025", "tier": "T1", "title": "GEO Group FY2025 results (reported Feb 12, 2026; 10-K/8-K)", "publisher": "The GEO Group, Inc. via SEC EDGAR", "url": "https://investors.geogroup.com/", "published": "2026-02-12", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Revenue mix confirmed in the FY2025 Form 10-K itself (filed Feb 25, 2026): 67% of revenue and 78% of year-end receivables from federal agencies, 19 ICE facilities enumerated in the facilities table, and the ~20,000-to-~26,000 ICE bed growth across four named facilities. The 48% ICE revenue share (per GEO's annual report chart) includes the ISAP monitoring contract, which alone was 10% of 2025 revenue." }, "cxw_fy2025": { "id": "cxw_fy2025", "tier": "T1", "title": "CoreCivic FY2025 results (earnings release Feb 11, 2026; Form 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026)", "publisher": "CoreCivic, Inc. via SEC EDGAR", "url": "https://ir.corecivic.com/", "published": "2026-02-11", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "The 10-K reports 44 correctional and detention facilities with ICE as the largest customer at 35% of FY2025 revenue, but publishes no aggregate ICE-facility count; the 'at least 10' figure traces to journalism, not the filing." }, "gallup_2026": { "id": "gallup_2026", "tier": "T2", "title": "Americans' Support for Immigration Down, Still Strong (ReconMR field June 1-15, 2026, n=1,001, +/-4)", "publisher": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/712289/", "published": "2026-07-09", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cato_dec2025": { "id": "cato_dec2025", "tier": "T4", "title": "Cato Institute analysis of leaked ICE book-in data (Dec 2025): 73% of detainees had no criminal conviction", "publisher": "Cato Institute", "url": "https://www.cato.org/blog", "published": "2025-12", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cato_texas": { "id": "cato_texas", "tier": "T4", "title": "Criminal Immigrants in Texas in 2019 (37.1% less likely to be convicted than native-born)", "publisher": "Cato Institute", "url": "https://www.cato.org/immigration-research-policy-brief/criminal-immigrants-texas-2019", "published": "2024", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cato_homicide": { "id": "cato_homicide", "tier": "T4", "title": "Illegal Immigrant Murderers in Texas, 2013-2022 (Policy Analysis No. 977)", "publisher": "Cato Institute", "url": "https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/illegal-immigrant-murderers-texas-2013-2022", "published": "2024-06", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "pnas_light": { "id": "pnas_light", "tier": "T3", "title": "Light, He, and Robey: Comparing crime rates between undocumented immigrants, legal immigrants, and native-born US citizens in Texas (PNAS 117:51)", "publisher": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014704117", "published": "2020-12-07", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cis_texas": { "id": "cis_texas", "tier": "T4", "title": "Misuse of Texas Data Understates Illegal Immigrant Criminality (the identification-lag critique)", "publisher": "Center for Immigration Studies", "url": "https://cis.org/", "published": "2024", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cis_deporter": { "id": "cis_deporter", "tier": "T4", "title": "Andrew Arthur: measured by removals plus returns, Clinton and Bush tie as 'deporter-in-chief' (1.864M in FY2000)", "publisher": "Center for Immigration Studies", "url": "https://cis.org/", "published": "2026-01-21", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "dhs_jul2025": { "id": "dhs_jul2025", "tier": "T1", "title": "DHS press release, July 22, 2025: 'ICE Arrests Worst of Worst Criminal Illegal Aliens' (the 70%-of-arrests claim)", "publisher": "U.S. Department of Homeland Security", "url": "https://www.dhs.gov/news", "published": "2025-07-22", "accessed": "2026-07-24", "note": "Tier 1 as the official record of rhetoric, not as a statistic. DHS later clarified (to CBS, Jan 16, 2026) that the 70% refers to arrests under this administration, not the detained population." }, "dhs_sept2025": { "id": "dhs_sept2025", "tier": "T1", "title": "DHS press release, September 17, 2025: 287(g) partnerships increased 641%, from 135 agreements to 1,001", "publisher": "U.S. Department of Homeland Security", "url": "https://www.dhs.gov/news", "published": "2025-09-17", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "ap_snopes": { "id": "ap_snopes", "tier": "T5", "title": "AP analysis of ICE data via Snopes (June 2025 detained-population composition)", "publisher": "Associated Press / Snopes", "url": "https://www.snopes.com/", "published": "2025-06", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "politifact_2026": { "id": "politifact_2026", "tier": "T5", "title": "PolitiFact recomputation from DDP microdata: Jan 20 to Oct 15, 2025, 66% of arrests had convictions or pending charges", "publisher": "PolitiFact", "url": "https://www.politifact.com/", "published": "2026-01", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "marshall_2026": { "id": "marshall_2026", "tier": "T5", "title": "The Marshall Project: ICE hasn't released its semimonthly Detention Management report since April 9 (July 15, 2026)", "publisher": "The Marshall Project", "url": "https://www.themarshallproject.org/", "published": "2026-07-15", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "aila_detention": { "id": "aila_detention", "tier": "T4", "title": "AILA detention resource: 39,703 in ICE custody on January 22, 2025", "publisher": "American Immigration Lawyers Association", "url": "https://www.aila.org/", "published": "2025-01", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "usafacts_det": { "id": "usafacts_det", "tier": "T3", "title": "USAFacts detention series: 70,805 detained at end of December 2025 (an over-70% year-over-year increase)", "publisher": "USAFacts", "url": "https://usafacts.org/", "published": "2026-01", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cbs_jan2026": { "id": "cbs_jan2026", "tier": "T5", "title": "CBS News (Jan 16, 2026), citing internal DHS data: above 73,000 detained, the highest in the agency's 23-year history", "publisher": "CBS News", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/", "published": "2026-01-16", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "axios_deaths": { "id": "axios_deaths", "tier": "T5", "title": "Axios: at least 31 people died in ICE custody in 2025, a two-decade high (Jan 20, 2026)", "publisher": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/01/20/ice-custody-deaths-trump-surge", "published": "2026-01-20", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "nipnlg_deaths": { "id": "nipnlg_deaths", "tier": "T4", "title": "National Immigration Project: ICE reported 33 detainee deaths in 2025, the highest in more than two decades", "publisher": "National Immigration Project of the National Lawyers Guild", "url": "https://nipnlg.org/", "published": "2026-01", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "phr_hrw": { "id": "phr_hrw", "tier": "T4", "title": "Dying in Detention: 39 deaths from Jan 20, 2025 to Jan 19, 2026, including seven apparent suicides (vs one reported in 2024)", "publisher": "Physicians for Human Rights / Human Rights Watch", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/report/2026/06/25/dying-in-detention/rising-deaths-in-an-expanding-us-immigration-detention-system", "published": "2026-06-25", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "dwn_101": { "id": "dwn_101", "tier": "T4", "title": "Detention Watch Network, Detention 101: 91% of detained people are in privately operated facilities; FY2024 detention budget ~$3.4B", "publisher": "Detention Watch Network", "url": "https://www.detentionwatchnetwork.org/issues/detention-101", "published": "2025", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "aic_beds": { "id": "aic_beds", "tier": "T4", "title": "American Immigration Council: OBBBA's $45B could fund at least 116,000 detention beds (125,000+ with state-cooperation funds)", "publisher": "American Immigration Council", "url": "https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/", "published": "2025-07", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "aic_transparency": { "id": "aic_transparency", "tier": "T4", "title": "American Immigration Council (April 17, 2026): 'ICE today is publishing less data than when Trump came into office'", "publisher": "American Immigration Council", "url": "https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/", "published": "2026-04-17", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cap_beds": { "id": "cap_beds", "tier": "T4", "title": "Center for American Progress: $45 billion to expand ICE detention capacity to 100,000 beds", "publisher": "Center for American Progress", "url": "https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release-obbba-funds-turbocharge-trump-administrations-deportation-force-harm-communities-and-economy-cap-report-explains/", "published": "2025", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "pew_2025": { "id": "pew_2025", "tier": "T3", "title": "Pew Research Center (Aug 21, 2025): a record 14.0 million unauthorized immigrants as of July 2023; the same release revises 2022 up from 11.0 to 11.8 million and says the population likely began declining in 2025", "publisher": "Pew Research Center", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/", "published": "2025-08-21", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "cms_2023": { "id": "cms_2023", "tier": "T3", "title": "Center for Migration Studies (Warren, May 7, 2025): 12.2 million unauthorized residents in 2023", "publisher": "Center for Migration Studies", "url": "https://cmsny.org/", "published": "2025-05-07", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "mpi_title42": { "id": "mpi_title42", "tier": "T3", "title": "Migration Policy Institute, Title 42 Postmortem: nearly 3 million expulsions, March 2020 to May 2023", "publisher": "Migration Policy Institute", "url": "https://www.migrationpolicy.org/", "published": "2023", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "trac_removals": { "id": "trac_removals", "tier": "T3", "title": "TRAC removals series: Obama-era formal removals >3.1M over eight years; Trump first term fewer than 932,000", "publisher": "Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse", "url": "https://tracreports.org/", "published": "2025", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "ohss_39": { "id": "ohss_39", "tier": "T2", "title": "OHSS Yearbook Table 39: removals plus returns by year (Obama-era combined ~5.3M; Clinton/Bush FY2000 1.864M)", "publisher": "U.S. Department of Homeland Security, OHSS", "url": "https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook", "published": "2024", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "kocher": { "id": "kocher", "tier": "T3", "title": "Austin Kocher's independent tracking (287(g) MOA series; EOIR release gaps; detention records)", "publisher": "Austin Kocher (Substack)", "url": "https://austinkocher.substack.com/", "published": "2026", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "vera_trends": { "id": "vera_trends", "tier": "T3", "title": "Vera Institute, ICE Detention Trends dashboard (launched Aug 2023; updated Jul 2025, Dec 2025, and Apr 2026, per the dashboard's own text; data FY2009 through March 10, 2026)", "publisher": "Vera Institute of Justice", "url": "https://www.vera.org/ice-detention-trends", "published": "2026-04", "accessed": "2026-07-24" }, "oig_lapse": { "id": "oig_lapse", "tier": "T2", "title": "DHS OIG audits page: appropriations lapse for approximately 60% of FY2026; routine reporting delayed", "publisher": "DHS Office of Inspector General", "url": "https://www.oig.dhs.gov/", "published": "2026", "accessed": "2026-07-24" } }, "dataStatus": [ { "id": "detmgmt", "series": "ICE semimonthly Detention Management report", "custodian": "ICE", "status": "frozen", "detail": "Congressionally mandated. Last release April 9, 2026; at least three lawsuits pending. Freezes track the DHS funding lapses: data ran to about Sept 21, 2025, resumed, last pre-lapse update Feb 12, 2026, one release around April 16, then nothing.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "marshall_2026" }, { "id": "dashboard", "series": "ICE ERO interactive dashboard", "custodian": "ICE", "status": "dark", "detail": "Launched December 2023; stopped comprehensive updates January 2025. Partial bimonthly statistics only since.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ice_fy2024" }, { "id": "fy2025_report", "series": "ICE FY2025 Annual Report", "custodian": "ICE", "status": "missing", "detail": "Not located as of the run date. Its absence breaks the annual removals and arrest-composition series.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ice_fy2024" }, { "id": "oig", "series": "DHS Office of Inspector General inspections", "custodian": "DHS OIG", "status": "lapsed", "detail": "Appropriations lapse for roughly 60% of FY2026, the longest in DHS history. Most audits and inspections paused, including at least seven ICE probes.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "oig_lapse" }, { "id": "eoir", "series": "EOIR monthly case data", "custodian": "DOJ EOIR", "status": "gap", "detail": "No September 2025 dataset was produced during the federal shutdown; the October 2025 dataset fills the gap.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "eoir_stats" }, { "id": "atd", "series": "ICE Alternatives to Detention cost page", "custodian": "ICE", "status": "archived", "detail": "Marked Archived (observed May 2026). The $4.20/day and $152/day figures are dated agency statistics; the congressional budget justifications are the current cite.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ice_atd" }, { "id": "ddp", "series": "Deportation Data Project releases", "custodian": "UC Berkeley / UCLA", "status": "live", "detail": "Litigation-driven: current release covers through March 10, 2026. Each update generally requires a new lawsuit; identifiers differ across releases, blocking merges.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ddp" }, { "id": "trac", "series": "TRAC clearinghouse", "custodian": "TRAC", "status": "live", "detail": "Migrated to tracreports.org (reported February 2025). Detention Quick Facts current as of July 11, 2026.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "trac_quickfacts" }, { "id": "g287", "series": "287(g) signed-MOA list", "custodian": "ICE", "status": "live", "detail": "Updated and timestamped to the minute by ICE (2,179 signed MOAs as of July 20, 2026).", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ice_287g" }, { "id": "ohss_status", "series": "OHSS Yearbook + monthly tables", "custodian": "DHS OHSS", "status": "live", "detail": "2024 Yearbook live, some tables 'coming soon'. The first monthly tables report covers data through September 2023; the OHSS office itself launched November 2023, which explains the old discrepancy.", "asOf": "2026-07-24", "src": "ohss" } ], "traps": [ { "id": "attribution", "n": "01", "title": "Agency attribution", "question": "Whose enforcement action was it: ICE in the interior, or CBP at the border?", "detail": "In FY2024, 223,752 of ICE's 271,484 removals originated from CBP border apprehensions; only 47,732 were interior removals from ICE arrests. Most headline 'ICE deported X' claims fail here.", "src": "ice_fy2024" }, { "id": "terminology", "n": "02", "title": "Removal terminology", "question": "Removals, returns, Title 42 expulsions, voluntary departures, and self-deportations are five distinct legal events.", "detail": "Pooling them across administrations is not comparable, and it is the single largest source of error found in the corpus. By formal removals Obama's total is ~3.1M; with returns pooled it is ~5.25M, and by that pooled metric Clinton and Bush tie the record instead.", "src": "ohss_39" }, { "id": "criminality", "n": "03", "title": "Criminality category x detention metric", "question": "Convictions, or convictions plus pending charges? Book-ins, average daily population, point-in-time, or unique people per year?", "detail": "The same system yields figures differing by a factor of several. The June 2025 detained population was 28.3% convicted; adding pending charges makes it 53% 'criminal'. Both numbers are real. They answer different questions.", "src": "ap_snopes" }, { "id": "denominator", "n": "04", "title": "The population denominator", "question": "Every per-capita rate stands on a modeled, not counted, unauthorized-population estimate.", "detail": "For the same year (2023), Pew models 14.0 million unauthorized residents and the Center for Migration Studies models 12.2 million. Two careful modelers, same year, 1.8 million apart. Every rate inherits that spread.", "src": "pew_2025" } ], "fy2024": { "fiscalYear": "FY2024", "totalRemovals": 271484, "cbpOriginRemovals": 223752, "interiorRemovals": 47732, "removalsWithCriminalHistory": 88763, "arrests": 113431, "arrestsConvictedOrCharged": 81312, "fy2023Arrests": 170590, "fy2023ArrestsConvictedOrChargedPct": 43, "src": "ice_fy2024", "derived": { "arrestsCriminalPct": 71.7, "removalsCriminalPct": 32.7, "interiorSharePct": 17.6, "cbpSharePct": 82.4 } }, "detention": { "baseline": { "date": "2025-01-22", "count": 39703, "note": "End of the Biden term", "src": "aila_detention" }, "endDec2025": { "date": "2025-12-29", "count": 70805, "note": "USAFacts; an over-70% year-over-year increase", "src": "usafacts_det" }, "midJan2026": { "date": "2026-01-16", "count": 73000, "note": "Above 73,000 per internal DHS data via CBS; the highest in the agency's 23-year history", "approx": true, "src": "cbs_jan2026" }, "fundedFy2024Adp": { "fiscalYear": "FY2024", "count": 41500, "costUsd": 3400000000, "note": "FY2024 appropriations funded a 41,500 daily average", "src": "dwn_101" }, "seriesStart": "2019-05-04", "frozenSince": "2026-04-09", "derived": { "multiple": 1.84, "increasePct": 78.3 } }, "compositionSnapshots": [ { "date": "2025-11-30", "total": 65735, "noConviction": 48377, "src": "trac_quickfacts", "noConvictionPct": 73.6 }, { "date": "2026-01-25", "total": 70766, "noConviction": 52504, "src": "trac_quickfacts", "noConvictionPct": 74.2 }, { "date": "2026-07-11", "total": 65765, "noConviction": 46436, "src": "trac_quickfacts", "noConvictionPct": 70.6 } ], "compositionJun2025": { "date": "2025-06", "total": 57861, "convicted": 16366, "convictedPct": 28.3, "pendingChargesPct": 24.7, "neitherPct": 47, "src": "ap_snopes" }, "removals": { "obamaFormal": { "value": 3100000, "label": "Obama, formal removals, FY2009-2016", "note": "More than 3.1 million; peak >400,000 in FY2012", "src": "trac_removals" }, "obamaWithReturns": { "value": 5250000, "label": "Obama, removals plus returns, FY2009-2016", "note": "OHSS Table 39 puts the pooled figure near 5.3 million", "src": "ohss_39" }, "trumpIFormal": { "value": 932000, "label": "Trump first term, formal removals, FY2017-2020", "note": "Fewer than 932,000 in the TRAC series", "isCeiling": true, "src": "trac_removals" }, "trumpIWithReturns": { "value": 1500000, "label": "Trump first term, removals plus returns, FY2017-2020", "note": "MPI's pooled deportations figure", "src": "ohss_39" }, "clintonBushFy2000": { "value": 1864000, "label": "FY2000 single year, removals plus returns", "note": "By the pooled metric Clinton and Bush would share the 'deporter-in-chief' title (CIS)", "src": "cis_deporter" }, "fy2025": { "value": 319980, "label": "FY2025 total removals", "note": "TRAC Report #767: 85,769 under Biden plus 234,211 after the transition", "src": "trac_767" }, "title42": { "value": 2960000, "label": "Title 42 expulsions, March 2020-May 2023", "note": "Nearly 3 million (MPI full-period figure); a distinct legal category, never a removal", "approx": true, "src": "mpi_title42" } }, "denominators": { "pew2023": { "value": 14000000, "year": 2023, "label": "Pew Research Center", "note": "Record high, as of July 2023; published Aug 21, 2025, superseding prior estimates", "src": "pew_2025" }, "cms2023": { "value": 12200000, "year": 2023, "label": "Center for Migration Studies", "note": "Warren, published May 7, 2025", "src": "cms_2023" }, "derived": { "absolute": 1800000, "relativePct": 14.8 } }, "g287": { "jan2025": { "date": "2025-01", "moas": 135, "src": "dhs_sept2025" }, "sept2025": { "date": "2025-09-17", "moas": 1001, "note": "DHS's own 641% announcement; Kocher independently confirms ~1,000 MOAs across ~775 agencies", "src": "dhs_sept2025" }, "jul2026": { "date": "2026-07-20", "moas": 2179, "states": 39, "territories": 2, "src": "ice_287g" }, "taskForceShare": { "date": "2025-12-05", "share": 0.517, "note": "622 of 1,202 active agreements were Task Force Model, the variant halted in 2012 over racial-profiling findings and reactivated in January 2025", "src": "kocher" }, "derived": { "moaMultiple": 16.1 } }, "deaths": { "cy2025Low": 31, "cy2025High": 33, "cy2024": 11, "covid2020": 20, "bush2004": 32, "windowJan2025Jan2026": { "deaths": 39, "suicides": 7, "priorYearSuicides": 1, "src": "phr_hrw" }, "note": "CY2025 counts range 31 (Axios) to 33 (National Immigration Project) by source and window. The 'deadliest in two decades' claim roughly ties or exceeds the 2004 peak of 32.", "srcLow": "axios_deaths", "srcHigh": "nipnlg_deaths", "dhsRateClaim": { "value": "0.00007%", "note": "Posted without underlying data and arithmetically incoherent as a percentage of any plausible denominator; recorded as an untraceable agency statistic. DHS later cited 0.009% as of April 30, 2026.", "src": "dhs_jul2025" } }, "courts": { "backlog": { "date": "2026-06-30", "cases": 3195137, "src": "trac_eoir" }, "sanFrancisco": { "window": "FY2019-2024", "lowDenialPct": 1.3, "highDenialPct": 91.6, "src": "trac_732" }, "newYork": { "window": "FY2019-2024", "lowDenialPct": 3.2, "highDenialPct": 92.6, "note": "Confirmed verbatim in TRAC #752 (an 89-point range at the Manhattan court); TRAC's newer FY2020-2025 series gives NY grant rates 2.6% to 92.4% (report #766)", "src": "trac_752" }, "grantRate": { "aug2024Pct": 38.2, "aug2025Pct": 19.2, "note": "TRAC #766: asylum grant rates cut in half", "src": "trac_766" }, "representation": { "fiscalYear": "FY2025", "overallPct": 55, "asylumPct": 77, "uacPct": 89, "appealsPct": 76, "src": "eoir_stats" }, "judgeThreshold": { "cases": 100, "note": "TRAC publishes a judge report only after 100+ asylum decisions in the window", "src": "trac_752" } }, "costs": { "detentionPerDay": { "value": 152, "note": "ICE's own (now archived) ATD page figure", "src": "ice_atd" }, "detentionFy2025Projected": { "value": 164.65, "note": "FY2025 projected bed rate; traces to congressional budget justifications", "src": "ice_atd" }, "atdPerDay": { "value": 4.2, "isCeiling": true, "note": "Less than $4.20/day per ATD-ISAP participant; marginal monitoring cost excluding case management", "src": "ice_atd" }, "familyPerDay": { "value": 296, "approx": true, "src": "ice_atd" }, "gaoCaution": { "note": "GAO-18-343 found ICE's bed-rate model contained calculation errors, including a $129M underestimation in the FY2015 request", "src": "gao_18_343" } }, "contractors": { "privateSharePct": { "low": 90, "high": 91, "note": "TRAC-based analyses put nearly 90% of detainees in privately operated facilities; Detention Watch Network states 91%. Tier 4-derived; the ADP-weighted recomputation is blocked by the frozen semimonthly report.", "src": "dwn_101" }, "geo": { "fiscalYear": "FY2025", "revenueUsd": 2630000000, "netIncomeUsd": 254000000, "icePctOfRevenue": 48, "federalPctOfRevenue": 67, "bedsFrom": 20000, "bedsTo": 26000, "iceFacilities": 19, "src": "geo_fy2025" }, "corecivic": { "fiscalYear": "FY2025", "revenueUsd": 2211000000, "prevRevenueUsd": 1962000000, "profitUsd": 116500000, "q4IceRevenueUsd": 244700000, "q4PrevIceRevenueUsd": 120300000, "icePctOfRevenue": 35, "totalFacilities": 44, "src": "cxw_fy2025" }, "obbba": { "appropriationUsd": 45000000000, "throughFiscalYear": "FY2029", "projectedBedsLow": 116000, "projectedBedsHigh": 125000, "dhsTarget": 100000, "src": "obbba", "bedsSrc": "aic_beds" } }, "opinion": { "goodThing": { "y2026": 73, "y2025": 79, "y2024": 66, "avg25yr": 67, "src": "gallup_2026" }, "republicans2026": { "pct": 50, "drop": 14, "src": "gallup_2026" }, "democrats2026": { "pct": 91, "src": "gallup_2026" }, "wantLess2025": { "pct": 30, "approx": true, "src": "gallup_2026" } }, "verdicts": { "supported": { "id": "supported", "label": "Supported by primary data", "short": "Supported", "tone": "ok" }, "someDefinitions": { "id": "someDefinitions", "label": "Supported under some defensible definitions, not others", "short": "Depends on the definition", "tone": "amber" }, "directional": { "id": "directional", "label": "Directionally right, magnitude overstated or understated", "short": "Right direction, size varies", "tone": "amber" }, "notSupported": { "id": "notSupported", "label": "Not supported by primary data", "short": "Not supported", "tone": "ember" }, "notResolvable": { "id": "notResolvable", "label": "Not resolvable with public data", "short": "No public answer", "tone": "dim" }, "categoryError": { "id": "categoryError", "label": "Category error (normative, legal-interpretive, or predictive)", "short": "Not a factual claim", "tone": "dim" } }, "directions": { "critical": { "id": "critical", "label": "Enforcement-critical" }, "favorable": { "id": "favorable", "label": "Enforcement-favorable" }, "mixed": { "id": "mixed", "label": "Advanced by both sides" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "no-conviction", "n": "01", "statement": "The majority of people in ICE detention have no criminal conviction.", "asStated": "Nearly three in four (73 percent) had no criminal conviction. (Cato, Dec 2025)", "plain": "Mostly true. About 7 in 10 people in ICE detention have never been convicted of a crime. Count pending charges as criminal too and it is still roughly half.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [ "criminality" ], "switcherAxis": "criminality", "compute": "TRAC: 48,377 of 65,735 (73.6%) with no conviction on Nov 30, 2025; 52,504 of 70,766 (74.2%) on Jan 25, 2026; 46,436 of 65,765 (70.6%) on July 11, 2026.", "stressTest": "Adding pending charges to the criminal bucket lowers the no-criminal share: AP found 71.7% without a conviction in June 2025, but 24.7% more had pending charges, leaving roughly 47% with neither. Robust across snapshots either way.", "counter": "Composition shifted fast: Cato found 62% of detainees had convictions in January 2025 vs 31% by November 2025.", "srcs": [ "trac_quickfacts", "ap_snopes", "cato_dec2025" ] }, { "id": "seventy-pct-arrests", "n": "02", "statement": "70% of ICE arrests are of criminals (convictions or pending charges).", "asStated": "70% of the arrests ICE has made are of illegal aliens with criminal convictions or have pending criminal charges. (DHS, July 22, 2025)", "plain": "True for one year, on one counting rule. It held in FY2024, but it counts unproven charges as criminal, and by late 2025 the share had slipped to about two-thirds.", "direction": "favorable", "verdict": "someDefinitions", "traps": [ "criminality" ], "switcherAxis": "criminality", "compute": "FY2024: 81,312 of 113,431 arrests (71.7%) had convictions or pending charges, verbatim in the ICE FY2024 Annual Report (vs 43% of 170,590 in FY2023). But the Oct 2025+ book-in cohort shows ~27% with convictions and roughly half with neither; PolitiFact's recomputation for Jan 20-Oct 15, 2025 found 66% of arrests.", "stressTest": "Period- and definition-dependent: holds for FY2024, drifts below 70% for later windows, counts unproven pending charges as criminal, and is about arrests, not the detained population.", "counter": "DHS's own arrest categories place visa overstays and illegal reentry in the non-criminal bucket, which cuts both ways.", "srcs": [ "ice_fy2024", "dhs_jul2025", "politifact_2026", "cato_dec2025" ] }, { "id": "deporter-in-chief", "n": "03", "statement": "Obama deported more people than Trump; he was the 'deporter-in-chief.'", "asStated": "Obama deported some 5.3 million... That is more than Trump. (Fox News, 2024)", "plain": "Depends what you count. By formal removals, Obama holds the record. The 5.3 million sound bite adds border turn-backs, and by that same math Clinton and Bush win instead.", "direction": "mixed", "verdict": "directional", "traps": [ "terminology", "attribution" ], "switcherAxis": "terminology", "compute": "Obama's formal removals: more than 3.1M over eight years (peak >400,000 in FY2012). Trump first term: fewer than 932,000 formal removals; ~1.5M with returns pooled. Obama with returns pooled: ~5.25M.", "stressTest": "The 5.3M figure pools border returns with removals; by that same pooled metric Clinton and Bush tie the single-year record at 1.864M in FY2000, so the pooled framing does not crown Obama either. Verdict text: directionally right on formal removals, but the headline magnitude is a definition artifact.", "counter": "Trump II accelerated sharply: FY2025 ended around 319,980 removals (TRAC #767), on pace for a record.", "srcs": [ "trac_removals", "ohss_39", "cis_deporter", "trac_767" ] }, { "id": "record-detention", "n": "04", "statement": "ICE detention is at an all-time high.", "asStated": "Above 73,000 in mid-January 2026, the highest since ICE's 2003 founding.", "plain": "True. Detention nearly doubled in a year and passed 73,000 in January 2026, the highest count ever recorded.", "direction": "mixed", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [ "criminality" ], "compute": "39,703 at the end of the Biden term (Jan 22, 2025, AILA); 70,805 by end of December 2025 (USAFacts); above 73,000 by mid-January 2026 (internal DHS data via CBS).", "stressTest": "The consistent biweekly series only starts May 4, 2019, and the Title 42 era depressed counts; 'highest ever recorded' is safe, 'highest in history' leans on the thinner pre-2019 record.", "counter": "Private-prison investors noted the population stayed below the ~100,000 some expected.", "srcs": [ "aila_detention", "usafacts_det", "cbs_jan2026" ] }, { "id": "private-operators", "n": "05", "statement": "Private companies operate the majority of ICE detention.", "asStated": "About 90% of detained people are held in privately operated facilities.", "plain": "True. About 9 in 10 detained people are held in facilities run by private companies.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [], "compute": "TRAC-based analyses put nearly 90% of detainees in privately operated facilities; Detention Watch Network states 91%. GEO's FY2025: $2.63B revenue, ICE alone 48% of it; CoreCivic: $2.2B.", "stressTest": "The precise share should be recomputed from the ADP-weighted facility list, which the frozen semimonthly report makes impossible; the share is Tier 4-derived and labeled so.", "counter": "County IGSA facilities and federally owned, privately managed sites blur the 'private' label.", "srcs": [ "dwn_101", "geo_fy2025", "cxw_fy2025" ] }, { "id": "deadliest-year", "n": "06", "statement": "2025 was the deadliest year for ICE detention in two decades.", "asStated": "At least 31 people died in ICE custody last year, a two-decade high. (Axios, Jan 2026)", "plain": "Close to true. Between 31 and 33 people died in ICE custody in 2025, about triple 2024. Whether that beats the 2004 record of 32 depends on whose count you use.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "directional", "traps": [ "criminality" ], "compute": "CY2025 counts range 31-33 by source and window (Axios ~31; NIP 33; DWN/The Appeal at least 32), vs 11 in CY2024, 20 in 2020, and 32 in 2004. PHR/HRW count 39 deaths for Jan 20, 2025-Jan 19, 2026, including seven apparent suicides vs one the year before.", "stressTest": "The 'record' hinges on the exact count and comparison year: 2025 roughly ties or exceeds the 2004 peak of 32 depending on the source. The range is the finding.", "counter": "DHS argues the per-capita death rate stayed low, but its 0.00007% figure shipped without underlying data and is arithmetically incoherent; a larger detained population produces more absolute deaths at a constant rate.", "srcs": [ "axios_deaths", "nipnlg_deaths", "phr_hrw" ] }, { "id": "immigrant-crime", "n": "07", "statement": "Immigrants, including unauthorized immigrants, commit crime at lower rates than native-born Americans.", "asStated": "Illegal immigrants were 37.1 percent less likely to be convicted of a crime than native-born Americans in Texas in 2019. (Cato)", "plain": "Likely true, based on the one state that measures it. Texas data shows lower conviction rates for unauthorized immigrants. Critics argue over the size of the gap far more than over its direction.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "someDefinitions", "traps": [ "denominator" ], "compute": "Texas DPS status-disaggregated data (the only state that records immigration status at arrest and conviction): Cato finds 37.1% lower conviction rates (2019) and 26% lower homicide-conviction rates (2013-2022); the peer-reviewed PNAS study (Light, He, and Robey 2020) found substantially lower felony arrest rates for undocumented immigrants, 2012-2018.", "stressTest": "CIS argues status identification lags in the Texas data bias the rates downward, a critique aimed at both Cato and the PNAS study. Direction is consistent across analysts; magnitude is contested. Verdict text: supported under the best available (Texas) data, with a live methodological dispute about identification lag.", "counter": "National status-disaggregated conviction data do not exist; every national claim extrapolates from one state.", "srcs": [ "cato_texas", "cato_homicide", "pnas_light", "cis_texas" ] }, { "id": "287g-growth", "n": "08", "statement": "287(g) agreements grew roughly 10-fold under Trump II.", "asStated": "Partnerships increased 641%, from 135 agreements to 1,001. (DHS, Sept 17, 2025)", "plain": "True, and understated. Signed agreements grew about 16-fold in 18 months, from 135 to 2,179.", "direction": "favorable", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [], "compute": "ICE's own page listed 2,179 signed MOAs on July 20, 2026, up from ~135 in January 2025: roughly 16-fold in signed MOAs. Third-party trackers (Titus Consulting, Kocher, Maxwell Commons) report lower 'active agreement' counts on differing definitions.", "stressTest": "The exact multiple depends on signed MOAs vs active agreements vs distinct agencies; one agency can sign multiple models. Growth is unambiguous under every counting rule.", "counter": "The Task Force Model, halted in 2012 over documented racial-profiling findings, was reactivated in January 2025 and comprises a majority of agreements (51.7% by Dec 5, 2025).", "srcs": [ "ice_287g", "dhs_sept2025", "kocher" ] }, { "id": "judge-lottery", "n": "09", "statement": "Immigration-court outcomes vary enormously by judge; asylum is a lottery.", "asStated": "Denial rates in the same courthouse range from near-zero to near-total.", "plain": "True that outcomes swing wildly by judge, in the same courthouse, from about 1% denial to about 92%. But some of that gap comes from the cases, not the judges.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [], "compute": "TRAC FY2019-2024: San Francisco judge denial rates ranged 1.3% to 91.6% (the widest spread); New York 3.2% to 92.6%. The national asylum grant rate fell to 19.2% in August 2025 from 38.2% a year earlier.", "stressTest": "TRAC's own language is hedged, and this register keeps the hedge: disparities appear to reflect, at least in part, the judicial philosophy each judge brings (report #732), and a higher denial rate does not by itself imply bias, because case mix, nationality, and representation differ across dockets (report #752).", "counter": "Representation is a powerful confounder: represented asylum applicants succeed far more often (FY2025 representation: 77% in asylum cases).", "srcs": [ "trac_732", "trac_752", "trac_766", "eoir_stats" ] }, { "id": "atd-cost", "n": "10", "statement": "Detention costs far more than alternatives to detention.", "asStated": "Roughly $152 per day for detention vs less than $4.20 per day for ATD.", "plain": "True on direction, fuzzy on size. Detention runs about $150 or more per person per day; ankle-monitor programs run a few dollars. Careful, though: the two figures measure different things.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "directional", "traps": [ "denominator" ], "compute": "ICE's own (now archived) figures: detention ~$152/day (FY2025 projected $164.65), family detention ~$296/day, ATD-ISAP under $4.20/day per participant.", "stressTest": "A marginal-vs-average trap: the ATD figure is marginal monitoring cost excluding case management, while the detention figure carries infrastructure and personnel. GAO-18-343 found ICE's bed-rate model itself contained errors. Detention is unambiguously far more expensive per day; the 'thirtyfold' framing overstates the clean comparison.", "counter": "ATD does not incapacitate, so the two programs do not buy the same thing.", "srcs": [ "ice_atd", "gao_18_343" ] }, { "id": "transparency", "n": "11", "statement": "ICE is now less transparent; it stopped publishing data.", "asStated": "ICE today is publishing less data than when Trump came into office. (American Immigration Council, April 2026)", "plain": "True. The mandated detention report stopped in April 2026, the dashboard stopped in January 2025, and the FY2025 annual report never appeared.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "supported", "traps": [], "compute": "The comprehensive dashboard updates stopped in January 2025; the congressionally mandated semimonthly Detention Management report has not been published since April 9, 2026, spawning at least three lawsuits; EOIR skipped its September 2025 dataset; no FY2025 annual report has appeared.", "stressTest": "The publication record is checkable date by date, which is what the data-status board above does.", "counter": "ICE attributes gaps to government shutdowns and has released some data off-cycle after public pressure.", "srcs": [ "marshall_2026", "aic_transparency", "eoir_stats" ] }, { "id": "opinion-fell", "n": "12", "statement": "Public support for immigration has fallen sharply under Trump II.", "asStated": "Gallup's 'good thing' share fell from 79% to 73%.", "plain": "Half true. Support dipped from 2025's record high, but it is still higher than in 2024 and higher than the 25-year average.", "direction": "mixed", "verdict": "directional", "traps": [], "compute": "Gallup 2026: 73% call immigration a good thing, down from a record 79% in 2025, driven by a 14-point Republican drop (to 50%) while Democrats held at 91%. But 73% remains above 2024 (66%) and the 25-year average (67%).", "stressTest": "Within-pollster trends are valid; cross-pollster level comparisons are not. The larger story in the trend file is the 2024-to-2025 rise, not the 2025-to-2026 dip.", "counter": "The share wanting less immigration fell to about 30% in 2025, near record lows.", "srcs": [ "gallup_2026" ] }, { "id": "obbba-beds", "n": "13", "statement": "OBBBA funds 100,000 detention beds.", "asStated": "$45 billion... to dramatically expand ICE detention capacity to 100,000 beds. (Center for American Progress)", "plain": "Not a fact yet. The $45 billion is real and enacted. The 100,000 beds are a projection; about 70,000 people were actually detained in early 2026.", "direction": "critical", "verdict": "categoryError", "traps": [ "criminality" ], "compute": "The $45 billion appropriation through FY2029 is real, in the enacted text. The American Immigration Council estimates it could fund at least 116,000 beds (125,000+ with the $3.5B state-cooperation funds); DHS describes a 100,000-bed target.", "stressTest": "Partly category error and partly not yet resolvable: '100,000 beds' is a projected capacity, not a current fact. Funded capacity, contracted capacity, and actual population are three different numbers; actual ADP was ~70,000 in early 2026 against an FY2024 funded level of 41,500.", "counter": "The money need not be spent evenly, and projections from appropriations have missed before.", "srcs": [ "obbba", "aic_beds", "cap_beds" ] } ], "timeline": [ { "date": "2003", "label": "ICE created by the Homeland Security Act of 2002; detention and removal series begin under ICE." }, { "date": "2004", "label": "Expedited removal first designated at the 100-air-mile / 14-day scope (69 FR 48877)." }, { "date": "2008-2009", "label": "Secure Communities launches; interior removals climb sharply. Peak-year caution: MPI puts ~234,000 interior removals in FY2008 while Cato's series peaks at 188,422 in 2011; no single authoritative series supports a ~238,000 FY2009 figure." }, { "date": "FY2012", "label": "Obama-era formal-removal peak, above 400,000." }, { "date": "2019-05-04", "label": "The ICE biweekly detention reporting series begins. Expedited removal expanded to the statutory maximum (84 FR 35409)." }, { "date": "2020-03 to 2023-05", "label": "Title 42 expulsions (nearly 3 million, MPI), a distinct legal category never counted as formal removals; depresses detention counts." }, { "date": "2022-03", "label": "Expedited removal restored to the 100-mile / 14-day limit (87 FR 16022)." }, { "date": "2023 (late)", "label": "OHSS stands up in November and publishes its first monthly enforcement tables in January 2024, covering data through September 2023. ICE launches the interactive ERO dashboard in December (its own newsroom dates the launch)." }, { "date": "2025-01", "label": "Expedited removal expanded nationwide, effective 6:00 p.m. EST Jan 21 (90 FR 8139). ICE stops comprehensive dashboard updates. EO 14159 drives 287(g) expansion." }, { "date": "2025-02", "label": "TRAC's immigration databases migrate to tracreports.org." }, { "date": "2025-07", "label": "OBBBA signed: $45 billion for detention through FY2029." }, { "date": "2025-09 to 2025-10", "label": "Federal government shutdown; EOIR skips its September dataset." }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "label": "Last ICE semimonthly Detention Management report. The series goes dark." }, { "date": "2026-06-23", "label": "D.C. Circuit vacates the stay on nationwide expedited removal (Make the Road NY v. Mullin). Mandate withheld pending the rehearing window; confirm issuance before treating the policy as in force." } ], "openGaps": [ { "id": "adp", "gap": "Real-time detention population and facility-level ADP since April 9, 2026.", "closes": "The pending FOIA lawsuits (Deportation Data Project and others) forcing release of the semimonthly report." }, { "id": "targeting", "gap": "Interior-arrest targeting intent: no public dataset shows why individuals were selected.", "closes": "Internal ICE tasking records, FOIA-reachable but heavily litigated." }, { "id": "igsa", "gap": "County-level IGSA contract terms, including guaranteed-minimum payments.", "closes": "State and local public-records requests, facility by facility." }, { "id": "crime-data", "gap": "National status-disaggregated crime data. Only Texas records immigration status at arrest and conviction.", "closes": "Nothing on the horizon; every national claim extrapolates from one state." }, { "id": "cost", "gap": "Cost transparency: guaranteed minimums, medical, and transport are not broken out in any single auditable series.", "closes": "Contract-level FOIA plus USASpending reconciliation." }, { "id": "fy2025-report", "gap": "The FY2025 ICE Annual Report, whose absence breaks the annual removals and arrest-composition series.", "closes": "ICE publishing it." } ] }