{ "meta": { "title": "Civic Crypto", "short": "Civic Crypto", "series": "Field Data", "kind": "Preregistered field study", "subject": "Which parts of crypto touch public institutions, and what the lab predicts about them before the outcomes land", "scope": "United States, with Illinois and Wyoming as the two live state cases. General-public audience, village clerk first.", "runDate": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-10-01", "updated": "2026-10-01", "reviewBy": "2027-01-31", "nextReview": "2027-01", "cadence": "Quarterly, and immediately after each of the two legal dates (2027-01-01 and 2027-01-18) to score the registered predictions.", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "disclaimer": "This is research, not investment advice. The lab issues no token and sells no product. Figures are a dated snapshot and most came from secondary trackers; the first dataset replaces them with primary pulls.", "refreshLog": [ { "date": "2026-10-01", "summary": "Accuracy and hardening pass, same day. Three claims verified against primary documents and linked: the Federal Reserve's September 24 proposals (comment period is 60 days after Federal Register publication, which the board now says), the OSF registration template list (Theory-based Predictions exists), and arXiv's January 21 endorsement change (institutional email no longer qualifies alone; staff cannot endorse). The Illinois General Assembly and Wyoming Stable Token Commission sites could not be reached on the day, so those rows stay as read. One grace window now governs every dated obligation." }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "summary": "Initial publication from the 2026-09-30 reading: the three layers, the status board, the village reading, the bull and bear cases, the lab design, and three studies drafted with their registration blocks empty on purpose." } ] }, "access": { "full": { "id": "full", "label": "Opened in full", "note": "Read end to end on the run date." }, "excerpt": { "id": "excerpt", "label": "Read as an excerpt", "note": "Read as a search excerpt. Treat the figure as approximate until the lab pulls primary data." } }, "sources": { "american_banker_genius": { "id": "american_banker_genius", "title": "Fed proposes stablecoin rules under GENIUS Act", "publisher": "American Banker", "published": "2026-09-25", "access": "full", "url": null }, "fed_pr_20260924": { "id": "fed_pr_20260924", "title": "Federal Reserve Board requests public comment on two proposals related to establishing a regulatory framework for Board-supervised payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act", "publisher": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System", "published": "2026-09-24", "access": "full", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20260924a.htm", "verified": { "on": "2026-10-01", "note": "Primary press release. Two proposals (reserve backing and capital standards; a tailored application process for Board-supervised banks); comments due 60 days after Federal Register publication." } }, "pwc_illinois": { "id": "pwc_illinois", "title": "Illinois enacts tax on digital asset business activity", "publisher": "PwC", "published": "2026-07-31", "access": "full", "url": null }, "genfinity_frnt": { "id": "genfinity_frnt", "title": "Wyoming FRNT adopts Chainlink Proof of Reserve", "publisher": "Genfinity", "published": "2026-09-03", "access": "full", "url": null }, "stablecoin_beat": { "id": "stablecoin_beat", "title": "Stablecoin supply tracker", "publisher": "Stablecoin Beat", "published": "2026-09", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "block_research": { "id": "block_research", "title": "Stablecoin supply through the 2025-2026 drawdown", "publisher": "The Block Research, via KuCoin", "published": "2026-09", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "rwa_xyz_secondhand": { "id": "rwa_xyz_secondhand", "title": "Tokenized US Treasuries, RWA.xyz data", "publisher": "Streamlinefeed and KuCoin, reporting RWA.xyz", "published": "2026-08", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "paul_hastings_genius": { "id": "paul_hastings_genius", "title": "GENIUS Act guide", "publisher": "Paul Hastings", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "troutman_clarity": { "id": "troutman_clarity", "title": "CLARITY Act cloture failure", "publisher": "Troutman", "published": "2026-09", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "gibson_dunn": { "id": "gibson_dunn", "title": "Digital assets update", "publisher": "Gibson Dunn", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "crypto_times_illinois": { "id": "crypto_times_illinois", "title": "Illinois signs the digital asset tax", "publisher": "Crypto Times", "published": "2026-06", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "wyoming_public_media": { "id": "wyoming_public_media", "title": "Wyoming stable token coverage", "publisher": "Wyoming Public Media", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "payments_dive": { "id": "payments_dive", "title": "Wyoming stable token and vendor payments", "publisher": "Payments Dive", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "gfoa_bonds": { "id": "gfoa_bonds", "title": "Bond modernization", "publisher": "GFOA", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "aba_letter": { "id": "aba_letter", "title": "Community bank letter on stablecoin deposit flight", "publisher": "American Bankers Association", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "cea_report": { "id": "cea_report", "title": "Report on stablecoins and community bank lending", "publisher": "White House Council of Economic Advisers", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "nyfed_via_forbes": { "id": "nyfed_via_forbes", "title": "New York Fed staff model of stablecoin deposit competition", "publisher": "Forbes, reporting the New York Fed", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "brookings": { "id": "brookings", "title": "Stablecoins and the Treasury market", "publisher": "Brookings", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "crs": { "id": "crs", "title": "Digital assets and public finance", "publisher": "Congressional Research Service", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "chicago_attorney_blog": { "id": "chicago_attorney_blog", "title": "Illinois digital asset tax and the 2025 registration law", "publisher": "Chicago business attorney blog", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "coingeek_japan": { "id": "coingeek_japan", "title": "Japan bill to let local governments issue digital bonds", "publisher": "CoinGeek", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "proof_of_talk": { "id": "proof_of_talk", "title": "Tokenized municipal bond savings claim", "publisher": "Proof of Talk", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "mdpi_review": { "id": "mdpi_review", "title": "Review of government blockchain land-record projects", "publisher": "MDPI", "published": "2025", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "ec_dataset": { "id": "ec_dataset", "title": "Government blockchain initiatives dataset", "publisher": "European Commission", "published": "2025", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "bis_payments": { "id": "bis_payments", "title": "Share of stablecoin volume that is payments", "publisher": "Bank for International Settlements", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "citi_projection": { "id": "citi_projection", "title": "Stablecoin supply projection to 2030", "publisher": "Citi", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "cnbc_reserves": { "id": "cnbc_reserves", "title": "State bitcoin reserve laws", "publisher": "CNBC", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "osf_help": { "id": "osf_help", "title": "Welcome to registrations (OSF help)", "publisher": "Center for Open Science", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": "https://help.osf.io/article/330-welcome-to-registrations", "verified": { "on": "2026-10-01", "note": "Template list read on the help page: OSF Preregistration, the AsPredicted template, Qualitative Preregistration, Theory-based Predictions and ten others. A registration is a frozen copy that cannot be edited or deleted; a public one gets a DOI on approval." } }, "casrai_zenodo": { "id": "casrai_zenodo", "title": "Zenodo and OSF compared", "publisher": "CASRAI", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": null }, "arxiv_endorsement": { "id": "arxiv_endorsement", "title": "The arXiv endorsement system", "publisher": "arXiv", "published": "2026", "access": "excerpt", "url": "https://info.arxiv.org/help/endorsement.html", "verified": { "on": "2026-10-01", "note": "Help page read in full; it points to the January 21, 2026 policy post for the change." } }, "arxiv_policy_post": { "id": "arxiv_policy_post", "title": "Attention Authors: updated endorsement policy", "publisher": "arXiv (blog)", "published": "2026-01-21", "access": "full", "url": "https://blog.arxiv.org/2026/01/21/attention-authors-updated-endorsement-policy/", "verified": { "on": "2026-10-01", "note": "An institutional email is no longer the sole qualifier; a new author needs it plus prior authorship in the endorsement domain, or a personal endorsement from an established author in that domain. arXiv staff cannot waive or provide endorsement. Nothing on this page about surveys or position papers needing prior peer review; that claim stays unverified." } } }, "primaryFeeds": [ { "id": "defillama", "label": "DefiLlama stablecoins", "role": "Stablecoin supply, daily", "url": "https://defillama.com/stablecoins", "feeds": [ "supply" ] }, { "id": "rwaxyz", "label": "RWA.xyz", "role": "Tokenized Treasuries, daily", "url": "https://app.rwa.xyz/treasuries", "feeds": [ "treasuries" ] }, { "id": "fed_press", "label": "Federal Reserve press releases", "role": "GENIUS Act rulemaking", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm", "feeds": [ "genius" ] }, { "id": "federal_register", "label": "Federal Register", "role": "The proposed rule and its comment docket", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/", "feeds": [ "genius" ] }, { "id": "congress", "label": "Congress.gov", "role": "CLARITY Act status and roll calls", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/", "feeds": [ "clarity" ] }, { "id": "ilga", "label": "Illinois General Assembly", "role": "SB 3019 and HB 5798 status", "url": "https://www.ilga.gov/", "feeds": [ "illinois" ] }, { "id": "sangamon", "label": "Sangamon County Circuit Clerk", "role": "The two lawsuits against the Illinois tax", "url": "https://www.sangamoncountycircuitclerk.org/", "feeds": [ "illinois" ] }, { "id": "wyo_stc", "label": "Wyoming Stable Token Commission", "role": "FRNT attestations and reserve reports", "url": "https://stabletoken.wyo.gov/", "feeds": [ "frnt" ] }, { "id": "osf", "label": "OSF Registries", "role": "Time-stamped, read-only preregistrations with a DOI", "url": "https://osf.io/registries", "feeds": [ "lab" ] }, { "id": "zenodo", "label": "Zenodo", "role": "Versioned dataset deposits with a concept DOI", "url": "https://zenodo.org/", "feeds": [ "lab" ] } ], "layers": [ { "id": "rails", "n": "1", "title": "Stablecoins as payment rails", "plain": "Dollar tokens backed by cash and Treasury bills. This is where law, money, and real adoption already meet.", "touches": "Banks, Treasury demand, state money-transmitter law, and any village that pays or gets paid electronically." }, { "id": "securities", "n": "2", "title": "Tokenized securities", "plain": "Treasuries, money funds, and eventually municipal bonds recorded on a shared ledger instead of passing through layers of clearing intermediaries.", "touches": "Public finance offices, bond counsel, and the small-issuer market where a village borrows." }, { "id": "records", "n": "3", "title": "On-chain records as civic data", "plain": "Public ledgers make reserves and flows checkable by anyone. That matters to a research lab even if it never touches a token.", "touches": "Auditors, journalists, and this lab: a reserve you can verify without asking the issuer." } ], "excluded": { "noCase": [ "Memecoins", "NFTs", "Exchange tokens" ], "why": "None of these has a public-institution case today.", "bitcoin": { "plain": "Bitcoin matters to governments mainly as a reserve-asset experiment.", "reserveLawStates": [ "Texas", "New Hampshire", "Arizona" ], "boughtAny": [ "Texas" ], "texasStakeUsd": 5000000, "texasLabel": "a placeholder", "src": "cnbc_reserves" } }, "supply": { "pointUsd": 303000000000, "lowUsd": 291000000000, "highUsd": 310000000000, "asOf": "2026-09-10", "usdtShare": 0.6, "srcs": [ "stablecoin_beat" ], "note": "The spread between trackers is itself a measurement problem. USDT is about 60 percent of supply.", "derived": { "spreadPct": 6.3 } }, "decoupling": { "plateauUsd": 290000000000, "from": "2025-10", "to": "2026-08", "bitcoinDrawdownPct": 50, "src": "block_research", "note": "Supply held near 290 billion dollars while Bitcoin fell more than 50 percent. Supply has decoupled from speculation." }, "treasuries": { "julUsd": 15900000000, "jan1Usd": 8900000000, "year": 2026, "src": "rwa_xyz_secondhand", "note": "RWA.xyz data, reported secondhand. Treasuries are the largest tokenized asset class.", "derived": { "multiple": 1.79, "addedUsd": 7000000000 } }, "genius": { "enacted": "2025-07-18", "finalRulesDeadline": "2026-07-18", "proposedRule": "2026-09-24", "commentDays": 60, "effectiveRule": "Earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final rules", "monthsAfterEnactment": 18, "daysAfterFinalRules": 120, "yieldBan": true, "srcs": [ "fed_pr_20260924", "american_banker_genius", "paul_hastings_genius" ], "derived": { "latestEffective": "2027-01-18" } }, "clarity": { "clotureDate": "2026-09-15", "yeas": 49, "nays": 50, "needed": 60, "agencyPosture": "The SEC and CFTC say they will proceed under existing authority.", "src": "troutman_clarity", "derived": { "short": 11, "voting": 99 } }, "illinois": { "ratePct": 0.2, "effective": "2027-01-01", "signed": "2026-06-16", "bill": "SB 3019", "repealBill": "HB 5798", "lawsuits": 2, "registrationLawYear": 2025, "firmsNamedInCoverage": [ "Zero Hash", "Jump Crypto", "Bitnomial", "Apex Crypto" ], "srcs": [ "pwc_illinois", "crypto_times_illinois", "chicago_attorney_blog" ], "note": "The first tax of its kind, which makes Illinois a natural experiment. It sits on top of the 2025 registration law for digital asset businesses." }, "frnt": { "tokens": 968000, "reservesUsd": 968000, "asOf": "2026-08-29", "capUsd": 1000000, "statutoryReserveRatio": 1.02, "buildCostUsd": 6000000, "reserveIncomeTo": "schools", "conflictNote": "One report cites both the 102 percent requirement and reserves roughly equal to supply, so the primary attestations must settle it.", "srcs": [ "genfinity_frnt", "wyoming_public_media", "payments_dive" ], "note": "Held under a 1 million dollar cap during buildout. The only US state-issued stablecoin.", "derived": { "ratio": 1, "meetsStatute": false, "headroomUsd": 32000 } }, "statusBoard": [ { "id": "supply", "item": "Stablecoin supply", "status": "measured", "figure": "About $303B on Sept 10, with trackers ranging from $291B to $310B", "note": "The spread between trackers is itself a measurement problem. USDT is about 60 percent of supply.", "srcs": [ "stablecoin_beat" ], "asOf": "2026-09-10" }, { "id": "decoupling", "item": "Stablecoins vs. the crypto price cycle", "status": "measured", "figure": "Supply held near $290B from Oct 2025 to Aug 2026 while Bitcoin fell more than 50%", "note": "Supply held near 290 billion dollars while Bitcoin fell more than 50 percent. Supply has decoupled from speculation.", "srcs": [ "block_research" ], "asOf": "2026-08" }, { "id": "treasuries", "item": "Tokenized US Treasuries", "status": "secondhand", "figure": "About $15.9B in July, up from $8.9B on Jan 1", "note": "RWA.xyz data, reported secondhand. Treasuries are the largest tokenized asset class.", "srcs": [ "rwa_xyz_secondhand" ], "asOf": "2026-07" }, { "id": "genius_rules", "item": "GENIUS Act rules", "status": "proposed", "figure": "Fed proposed two rules Sept 24, with comments due 60 days after Federal Register publication", "note": "Agencies missed the July 18, 2026 deadline for final rules. The law bars issuers from paying yield.", "srcs": [ "fed_pr_20260924", "american_banker_genius", "paul_hastings_genius" ], "asOf": "2026-09-24" }, { "id": "genius_date", "item": "GENIUS effective date", "status": "pending", "figure": "Earlier of 18 months after enactment or 120 days after final rules", "note": "Eighteen months after July 2025 enactment is Jan 18, 2027, so that is the latest it can be.", "srcs": [ "fed_pr_20260924", "american_banker_genius", "paul_hastings_genius" ], "asOf": "2026-09-30" }, { "id": "clarity", "item": "CLARITY Act", "status": "failed", "figure": "Senate cloture failed 49 to 50 on Sept 15", "note": "Needed 60. The SEC and CFTC say they will proceed under existing authority.", "srcs": [ "troutman_clarity" ], "asOf": "2026-09-15" }, { "id": "illinois", "item": "Illinois Digital Asset Tax", "status": "enacted", "figure": "0.2% of transaction value, effective Jan 1, 2027", "note": "Signed June 16 in SB 3019. A repeal bill (HB 5798) and two lawsuits are pending.", "srcs": [ "pwc_illinois", "crypto_times_illinois", "chicago_attorney_blog" ], "asOf": "2026-09-30" }, { "id": "frnt", "item": "Wyoming FRNT", "status": "measured", "figure": "About 968,000 tokens against about $968,000 in reserves on Aug 29", "note": "Held under a 1 million dollar cap during buildout. The only US state-issued stablecoin.", "srcs": [ "genfinity_frnt", "wyoming_public_media", "payments_dive" ], "asOf": "2026-08-29" } ], "village": [ { "id": "banks", "title": "Banks", "plain": "Governments issuing 10 million dollars or less can sell tax-exempt bonds directly to local banks as bank-qualified debt, so community bank health touches small-issuer borrowing.", "detail": "The deposit-flight fight is unsettled: community bankers warn of up to 6.6 trillion dollars in deposits at risk, the Council of Economic Advisers finds a small effect, and a New York Fed staff model shows large losses only if stablecoins pay competitive yield.", "inference": "The link from deposit flight to village borrowing costs is the author's inference and untested.", "bankQualifiedCapUsd": 10000000, "depositsAtRiskUsd": 6600000000000, "srcs": [ "gfoa_bonds", "aba_letter", "cea_report", "nyfed_via_forbes" ] }, { "id": "wyoming", "title": "Wyoming's state token", "plain": "It is real, small, and deliberate. The state allocated 6 million dollars to build it, routes reserve income to schools, and aims to cut card fees on vendor payments.", "detail": "Its revenue is interest on reserves, so falling rates shrink it. It is the one public reference implementation to study.", "inference": null, "srcs": [ "wyoming_public_media", "payments_dive", "genfinity_frnt" ] }, { "id": "illinois", "title": "Illinois", "plain": "The 0.2 percent tax is the first of its kind, which makes Illinois a natural experiment.", "detail": "It sits on top of the 2025 registration law for digital asset businesses.", "inference": null, "srcs": [ "pwc_illinois", "chicago_attorney_blog" ] }, { "id": "munis", "title": "Tokenized munis", "plain": "The pitch is faster settlement and small-dollar local ownership.", "detail": "An advocacy paper claims 150 basis points of savings, which could not be corroborated, and no US municipal case with measured savings was found. Japan is the live test, with a bill to let local governments issue digital bonds.", "inference": "The 150 basis point claim is uncorroborated and is carried here as a claim, not a figure.", "claimedSavingsBps": 150, "corroborated": false, "srcs": [ "proof_of_talk", "coingeek_japan" ] }, { "id": "land", "title": "Land records", "plain": "None of the major land projects made a blockchain the sole legal record of ownership.", "detail": "In a European Commission dataset more than half of government blockchain initiatives remain pilots.", "inference": null, "pilotShareOver": 0.5, "srcs": [ "mdpi_review", "ec_dataset" ] } ], "cases": [ { "id": "payments", "question": "Payments", "bull": "Supply held near 290 billion dollars through a 50 percent Bitcoin drawdown, and transfers topped 90 trillion dollars in a year.", "bear": "The BIS estimates only 1.1 percent of 2025 stablecoin volume was payments, and Tether and Circle hold about 90 percent of supply.", "bullSrcs": [ "block_research" ], "bearSrcs": [ "bis_payments" ], "figures": { "transfersUsd": 90000000000000, "paymentsSharePct": 1.1, "topTwoSharePct": 90 }, "leans": "bear" }, { "id": "public_finance", "question": "Public finance", "bull": "Reserves create steady demand for T-bills, and Citi projects 0.5 to 3.7 trillion dollars of supply by 2030.", "bear": "A stablecoin run has no federal backstop, which invites ad hoc bailouts as with money funds.", "bullSrcs": [ "citi_projection", "brookings" ], "bearSrcs": [ "crs" ], "figures": { "citiLowUsd": 500000000000, "citiHighUsd": 3700000000000, "byYear": 2030 }, "leans": "bull" }, { "id": "local_banks", "question": "Local banks", "bull": "The Council of Economic Advisers finds the effect of a yield ban on community lending is small.", "bear": "Rewards paid through affiliates are not barred, so deposits could migrate to large issuers that do not lend locally.", "bullSrcs": [ "cea_report" ], "bearSrcs": [ "aba_letter", "nyfed_via_forbes" ], "figures": {}, "leans": "open" }, { "id": "records", "question": "Records and government", "bull": "Wyoming now publishes reserve data on-chain, so anyone can verify backing.", "bear": "Projects pitched as replacing a legal system of record tend to stay pilots.", "bullSrcs": [ "genfinity_frnt" ], "bearSrcs": [ "mdpi_review", "ec_dataset" ], "figures": {}, "leans": "bear" } ], "lab": { "name": "The lab", "decision": "One lab, two programs. Pingree Grove Studies is program one and Civic Crypto is program two; both sit in the research catalog's field-data series, and this page is the second program's hub.", "programs": [ { "id": "pingree_grove", "label": "Pingree Grove Studies", "href": "/research/pingree-grove", "order": 1 }, { "id": "civic_crypto", "label": "Civic Crypto", "href": "/research/civic-crypto", "order": 2 } ], "surfaces": [ { "id": "registry", "label": "Registry", "holds": "Preregistrations and dated predictions", "home": "OSF Registries, which time-stamps a read-only plan and assigns a DOI", "homeId": "osf", "external": true }, { "id": "datasets", "label": "Datasets", "holds": "Versioned open data, each with a datasheet and license", "home": "Zenodo, which mints a DOI per deposit and keeps a concept DOI across versions", "homeId": "zenodo", "external": true }, { "id": "papers", "label": "Papers", "holds": "Protocols, preprints, final reports", "home": "OSF community preprint servers now, arXiv once endorsed", "homeId": "osf", "external": true }, { "id": "garden", "label": "Garden", "holds": "Essays and evolving notes, each labeled seedling, budding, or evergreen with a last-tended date", "home": "jakelawrence.xyz", "homeId": null, "external": false }, { "id": "experiments", "label": "Experiments", "holds": "Live public trackers and instruments, code open", "home": "jakelawrence.xyz, with the repo public", "homeId": null, "external": false } ], "rules": [ { "id": "link_down", "rule": "Every essay links to the registration and dataset it rests on." }, { "id": "link_up", "rule": "Every dataset links back to the essays that used it." } ], "gardenStages": [ "seedling", "budding", "evergreen" ] }, "publishing": { "order": "Register on OSF and deposit on Zenodo now. Treat arXiv as a later step, because its rules since January 21, 2026 favor people who already have an arXiv record or a personal endorser.", "venues": [ { "id": "osf", "label": "OSF preregistration", "plain": "OSF offers a general Preregistration, the eight-question AsPredicted form, a qualitative template, and a Theory-based Predictions template for logging predictions before outcomes are known. A registration is time-stamped and read-only.", "fit": "The Illinois forecast fits the predictions template.", "srcs": [ "osf_help" ] }, { "id": "zenodo", "label": "Zenodo", "plain": "It has no preregistration feature but is the right place for finished datasets and code releases, each with a DOI.", "fit": "Every dataset the lab publishes.", "srcs": [ "casrai_zenodo" ] }, { "id": "arxiv", "label": "arXiv endorsement", "plain": "Since January 21, 2026 a new submitter needs both an institutional email and prior authorship in that endorsement domain, or a personal endorsement from an established author in the same domain. An institutional email alone no longer qualifies, and arXiv staff cannot endorse.", "fit": "A secondary report adds that computer science surveys and position papers need documented prior peer review. The policy post says nothing of the kind, so verify that rule before choosing a category.", "srcs": [ "arxiv_policy_post", "arxiv_endorsement" ] } ], "path": "Preprint the protocol and first results on an OSF-hosted community server, then ask authors of the closest prior work for an arXiv endorsement once a finished paper exists.", "candidateCategories": [ { "id": "cs.CY", "label": "cs.CY (computers and society)", "verified": false }, { "id": "econ.GN", "label": "econ.GN (general economics)", "verified": false } ], "categoryCaveat": "Stated from general knowledge and not checked." }, "disclosure": { "guardrails": [ { "id": "no_advice", "rule": "No investment advice." }, { "id": "no_token", "rule": "No token or product of the lab's own." }, { "id": "no_advocacy", "rule": "No advocacy inside the research pages. Essays can argue; registrations and datasets do not." } ], "employment": "The author works full time in applied AI at an employer that, by the site's standing policy, is never named here and is never the subject of this work. Nothing on this page draws on it.", "consultingClients": null, "cryptoHoldings": null, "declareBy": "2026-10-07", "reviewer": null, "state": "scheduled" }, "studies": [ { "id": "illinois_forecast", "n": "1", "title": "Illinois crypto tax forecast", "why": "Start here because it has a hard deadline.", "plain": "Dated probabilities for four outcomes about the first tax of its kind, written down before January 1, 2027.", "template": "Theory-based Predictions", "registerBy": "2026-10-21", "graceDays": 3, "resolveBy": "2027-03-31", "predictions": [ { "id": "takes_effect", "claim": "The tax takes effect on January 1, 2027 without an injunction.", "p": null }, { "id": "repeal_fails_first", "claim": "The repeal bill (HB 5798) fails before the tax takes effect.", "p": null }, { "id": "court_rules_by_date", "claim": "A court rules on at least one of the two lawsuits by a set date.", "p": null, "thresholdNote": "The date is a placeholder to be fixed at registration." }, { "id": "firms_move", "claim": "At least one of the Illinois-based firms named in coverage announces a move out of state.", "p": null } ], "data": [ "Sangamon County court docket", "Illinois General Assembly bill status for SB 3019 and HB 5798", "Firm announcements" ], "feeds": [ "ilga", "sangamon" ], "registration": { "doi": null, "registeredAt": null, "url": null, "skipped": null }, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "wyoming_audit", "n": "2", "title": "Wyoming stable token audit", "why": "Then audit Wyoming continuously.", "plain": "FRNT reserves stay at or above the 102 percent statutory level, and supply stays under 1 million dollars until the state announces a change.", "template": "Preregistration", "registerBy": "2026-11-30", "graceDays": 3, "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "predictions": [ { "id": "reserve_floor", "claim": "Daily reserves stay at or above 102 percent of supply across the window.", "p": null }, { "id": "cap_holds", "claim": "Supply stays under the 1 million dollar cap until the commission announces a change.", "p": null } ], "data": [ "Daily on-chain supply", "The Proof of Reserve feed", "Commission attestations" ], "feeds": [ "wyo_stc" ], "datasetFromDayOne": true, "registration": { "doi": null, "registeredAt": null, "url": null, "skipped": null }, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "village_baseline", "n": "3", "title": "Village payment cost baseline", "why": "Then test whether crypto's claimed payments benefit exists in villages at all.", "plain": "Card and processing fees are a small share of village revenue, which would weaken the case for a stablecoin payments pilot.", "template": "Preregistration", "registerBy": "2026-12-31", "graceDays": 3, "resolveBy": "2027-06-30", "predictions": [ { "id": "fees_small", "claim": "Card and processing fees are below a placeholder share of revenue in a majority of the sampled villages.", "p": null, "thresholdNote": "The share is a placeholder to be fixed at registration, before any budget is opened." } ], "data": [ "Audited budgets and annual financial reports for 5 to 10 Illinois villages", "Public records requests for merchant statements" ], "feeds": [], "sampleMin": 5, "sampleMax": 10, "startWith": "Villages whose finances the lab already knows well.", "registration": { "doi": null, "registeredAt": null, "url": null, "skipped": null }, "state": "scheduled" } ], "plan": [ { "id": "osf_project", "month": "October", "by": "2026-10-07", "label": "Create an OSF project and a Zenodo community for lab datasets", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "disclosure", "month": "October", "by": "2026-10-07", "label": "Publish the standing disclosure: clients and holdings declared, reviewer named", "done": false, "derive": "disclosure", "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "draft_s1", "month": "October", "by": "2026-10-14", "label": "Draft Study 1 predictions with probabilities, thresholds set before any data collection", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "register_s1", "month": "October", "by": "2026-10-21", "label": "Register Study 1 on OSF", "done": false, "study": "illinois_forecast", "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "lab_page", "month": "October", "by": "2026-10-31", "label": "Launch one lab page on jakelawrence.xyz that links the registration", "done": true, "doneOn": "2026-10-01", "note": "This page. It links the registration the moment one exists.", "state": "done" }, { "id": "frnt_snapshot", "month": "November", "by": "2026-11-30", "label": "Start the daily FRNT snapshot and publish dataset v0.1 on Zenodo with a datasheet and an open license", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "register_s2", "month": "November", "by": "2026-11-30", "label": "Register Study 2 on OSF", "done": false, "study": "wyoming_audit", "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "garden_note", "month": "November", "by": "2026-11-30", "label": "Publish the first garden note, labeled seedling, explaining stablecoins for a village clerk", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "pick_villages", "month": "November", "by": "2026-11-30", "label": "Pick 5 villages and start collecting budgets for Study 3", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "register_s3", "month": "December", "by": "2026-12-31", "label": "Register Study 3 on OSF", "done": false, "study": "village_baseline", "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "preprint_s1", "month": "December", "by": "2026-12-31", "label": "Post the Study 1 protocol as a preprint on an OSF-hosted server", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "endorsers", "month": "December", "by": "2026-12-31", "label": "List candidate arXiv endorsers but do not ask until a finished paper exists", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "freeze_s1", "month": "December", "by": "2026-12-31", "label": "Freeze the Study 1 page and publish a note on what the lab will watch", "done": false, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "il_effective", "month": "Then", "by": "2027-01-01", "label": "Illinois tax takes effect, so log outcomes against the registered predictions", "done": false, "gate": true, "state": "scheduled" }, { "id": "genius_latest", "month": "Then", "by": "2027-01-18", "label": "Latest date the GENIUS Act can take effect, so score the federal side of the forecast", "done": false, "gate": true, "state": "scheduled" } ], "legalDates": [ { "id": "illinois", "label": "Illinois tax takes effect", "date": "2027-01-01", "days": 92 }, { "id": "genius", "label": "Latest GENIUS effective date", "date": "2027-01-18", "days": 109 } ], "stateAsOf": "2026-10-01", "graceDays": 3 }