Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach

By Jennifer Morris (Springer Nature, 2025). Understanding future emissions scenarios is essential for preparing for climate change. The chapter "Emissions and Concentration Scenarios" examines how socioeconomic uncertainty contributes to overall climate change projections, and identifies key drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. It reviews the history of emissions scenarios and compares various approaches, including IPCC methods and formal uncertainty analysis techniques. The chapter concludes with lessons learned from over 40 years of socioeconomic scenario development for climate research.